Friday, May 21, 2010

Climate change made simple

First atmospheric CO2 and its role in climate change:

  1. Compared to water vapor, CO2 is a minor green house gas.
  2. Changes in the level of atmospheric CO2 do not produce corresponding changes in the global temperature.
  3. The level of atmospheric CO2 is a consequence of global warming not the cause.

So, what is behind climate change and what does the future hold?

  1. The global temperature of the earth is directly related to the total solar irradiance (TSI) received by the earth.
  2. The TSI has a quasi-periodic variation with periods of ~11 years and ~200 years.
  3. The TSI has been abnormally high over much of the twentieth century. This accounts for the observed temperature increases that have been incorrectly attributed to human activity.
  4. We are now at the end of the 200-year cycle's warming phase and are entering a protracted global cooling era.
  5. The TSI minimum will be reached in 2042 ±11 years.
  6. We should not expect to see significant global warming for 150 years.

My earlier post on this subject has references.


Ron Russell said...

I too, see another ice age in the future---10,000 years since the last big freeze. Think we are over due. I suppose the simple truth here is that no one really knows and only fools would venture guesses, but we do have a lot of those around!

hbl said...

It actually hasn't been that long. The last 'mini-iceage' was in the sixteen hundreds when the Thames and the Seine froze over.