First atmospheric CO2 and its role in climate change:
- Compared to water vapor, CO2 is a minor green house gas.
- Changes in the level of atmospheric CO2 do not produce corresponding changes in the global temperature.
- The level of atmospheric CO2 is a consequence of global warming not the cause.
So, what is behind climate change and what does the future hold?
- The global temperature of the earth is directly related to the total solar irradiance (TSI) received by the earth.
- The TSI has a quasi-periodic variation with periods of ~11 years and ~200 years.
- The TSI has been abnormally high over much of the twentieth century. This accounts for the observed temperature increases that have been incorrectly attributed to human activity.
- We are now at the end of the 200-year cycle's warming phase and are entering a protracted global cooling era.
- The TSI minimum will be reached in 2042 ±11 years.
- We should not expect to see significant global warming for 150 years.
My earlier post on this subject has references.