First atmospheric CO2 and its role in climate change:
- Compared to water vapor, CO2 is a minor green house gas.
- Changes in the level of atmospheric CO2 do not produce corresponding changes in the global temperature.
- The level of atmospheric CO2 is a consequence of global warming not the cause.
So, what is behind climate change and what does the future hold?
- The global temperature of the earth is directly related to the total solar irradiance (TSI) received by the earth.
- The TSI has a quasi-periodic variation with periods of ~11 years and ~200 years.
- The TSI has been abnormally high over much of the twentieth century. This accounts for the observed temperature increases that have been incorrectly attributed to human activity.
- We are now at the end of the 200-year cycle's warming phase and are entering a protracted global cooling era.
- The TSI minimum will be reached in 2042 ±11 years.
- We should not expect to see significant global warming for 150 years.
My earlier post on this subject has references.
2 comments:
I too, see another ice age in the future---10,000 years since the last big freeze. Think we are over due. I suppose the simple truth here is that no one really knows and only fools would venture guesses, but we do have a lot of those around!
It actually hasn't been that long. The last 'mini-iceage' was in the sixteen hundreds when the Thames and the Seine froze over.
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